Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-9-2024

Department

Medicine

Abstract

Background

Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates.

Methods

We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021–August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝑆), vaccinated (V" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝑉), variant-specific infected (I1" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝐼1 and I2" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝐼2), recovered (R" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝑅), and seropositive (T" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝑇) model (SVI2RT" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; text-wrap-mode: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">𝑆𝑉𝐼2𝑅𝑇) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration.

Results

Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag.

Conclusions

Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.

Comments

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

Original Publication Information

Holm, R.H., Rempala, G.A., Choi, B. et al. Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates. Commun Med 4, 70 (2024).

DOI

10.1038/s43856-024-00494-y

ORCID

0000-0001-8849-1390

Share

COinS