Pharmacology and Toxicology
Robust epidemiological models relating wastewater to community disease prevalence are lacking. Assessments of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates have relied primarily on convenience sampling, which does not provide reliable estimates of community disease prevalence due to inherent biases. This study conducted serial stratified randomized samplings to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 3717 participants and obtained weekly samples of community wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in Jefferson County, KY (USA) from August 2020 to February 2021. Using an expanded Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, the longitudinal estimates of the disease prevalence were obtained and compared with the wastewater concentrations using regression analysis. The model analysis revealed significant temporal differences in epidemic peaks. The results showed that in some areas, the average incidence rate,
Original Publication Information
Ted Smith, Rochelle H. Holm, Rachel J. Keith, Alok R. Amraotkar, Chance R. Alvarado, Krzysztof Banecki, Boseung Choi, Ian C. Santisteban, Adrienne M. Bushau-Sprinkle, Kathleen T. Kitterman, Joshua Fuqua, Krystal T. Hamorsky, Kenneth E. Palmer, J. Michael Brick, Grzegorz A. Rempala, Aruni Bhatnagar, Quantifying the relationship between sub-population wastewater samples and community-wide SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 853, 2022, 158567, ISSN 0048-9697, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158567. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722056662)
Smith, Ted; Holm, Rochelle H.; Keith, Rachel J.; Amraotkar, Alok R.; Alvarado, Chance R.; Banecki, Krzysztof; Choi, Boseung; Santisteban, Ian; Bushau-Sprinkle, Adrienne M.; Kitterman, Kathleen T.; Fuqua, Joshua; Hamorsky, Krystal T.; Palmer, Kenneth E.; Brick, J. Michael; Bhatnagar, Aruni; and Rempala, Grzegorz A., "Quantifying the relationship between sub-population wastewater samples and community-wide SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence" (2022). Faculty Scholarship. 928.