Date on Master's Thesis/Doctoral Dissertation

5-2007

Document Type

Doctoral Dissertation

Degree Name

Ph. D.

Department

Mechanical Engineering

Committee Chair

Cobourn, W. Geoffrey

Author's Keywords

Ozone; Air quality; Particulate matter

Subject

Ozone--Forecasting

Abstract

Ozone forecast models using nonlinear regression (NLR) have been successfully applied to daily ozone forecast for seven metro areas in Kentucky, including Ashland, Bowling Green, Covington, Lexington, Louisville, Owensboro, and Paducah. In this study, the updated 2005 NLR ozone forecast models for these metro areas were evaluated on both the calibration data sets and independent data sets. These NLR ozone forecast models explained at least 72% of the variance of the daily peak ozone. Using the models to predict the ozone concentrations during the 2005 ozone season, the metro area mean absolute errors (MAEs) of the model hindcasts ranged from 5.90 ppb to 7.20 ppb. For the model raw forecasts, the metro area MAEs ranged from 7.90 ppb to 9.80 ppb. Based on previously developed NLR ozone forecast models for those areas, Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system models were developed for the seven metro areas. The fuzzy "c-means" clustering technique coupled with an optimal output predefuzzification approach (least square method) was used to train the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system. Two types of fuzzy models, basic fuzzy and NLR-fuzzy system models, were developed. The basic fuzzy and NLR-fuzzy models exhibited essentially equivalent performance to the existing NLR models on 2004 ozone season hindcasts and forecasts. Both types of fuzzy models had, on average, slightly lower metro area averaged MAEs than the NLR models. Among the seven Kentucky metro areas Ashland, Covington, and Louisville are currently designated nonattainment areas for both ground level O 3 and PM 2.5 . In this study, summer PM 2.5 forecast models were developed for providing daily average PM 2.5 forecasts for the seven metro areas. The performance of the PM 2.5 forecast models was generally not as good as that of the ozone forecast models. For the summer 2004 model hindcasts, the metro-area average MAE was 5.33ìg/m 3 . Exploratory research was conducted to find the relationship between the winter PM 2.5 concentrations and the meteorological parameters and other derived prediction parameters. Winter PM 2.5 forecast models were developed for seven selected metro areas in Kentucky. For the model fits, the MAE for the seven forecast models ranged from 3.23 ìg/m 3 to 4.61 ìg/m 3 (~26-28% NMAE). The fuzzy technique was also applied on PM 2.5 forecast models to seek more accurate PM 2.5 prediction. The NLR-fuzzy PM 2.5 had slightly better performance than the NLR models.

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