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The Cardinal Edge

Program/Event

Undergraduate Research Showcase 2025

Abstract

Kentucky’s (KY) local climate is facing uncertainty as the influence of climate change pushes hydrological variation to its extremes. Proxy-based data can be used to better understand this variation by analyzing past climatic conditions. Tree rings provide valuable proxy data on an annual to sub-annual resolution that can be used to create climate reconstructions. However, the state of Kentucky lacks high temporal and spatial resolution datasets for accurate climate reconstruction analysis. Climate-sensitive tree species and locations must be identified and evaluated within Kentucky to further enhance these datasets to a higher resolution. Our research objective is to analyze the climate-growth response of hemlock (TSCA) specimens within Tight Hollow in Daniel Boone National Forest by using dendrochronological methods. I compiled the tree-ring data into a single chronology and analyzed the moving and static correlation between annual growth and historic monthly and seasonal climate variables. I identified statistically significant relationships between growth and growing season moisture and temperature variation, but the relationships were not stable over the instrumental period. Relationships with growing season TMAX shift from current to previous year around the mid twentieth century, while relationships with current and previous precipitation stay consistent until around the 1990s. Nonstationarity within TMAX and precipitation relationships may be attributed to shifting climate conditions or disturbances from Hemlock Woolly Adelgid. This instability and the lack of climate sensitivity have implications for the use of hemlock ring widths as proxies in climate reconstructions within Kentucky.

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